Blog 7

Matt Westover

Political Science 150

Dr. Hawkins

11/1/12

Blog #7

                While electoral systems vary greatly from state to state, there exist a number of consistencies between them, or rather, links between their electoral systems and their party systems can be generalized to a couple of key factors. Maurice Duverger developed a theory, aptly titled “Duverger’s Law”, which states that single member district plurality (SMDP) systems consistently produce two effective political parties by either chasing the smaller parties out of the game altogether, or forcing them to form coalitions, whereas proportional representation (PR) systems allow for more₁.These assertions hold true where Australia is concerned, and for the remainder of this piece I will use the Great Down Under as a case study for the validity of Duverger’s law.  

                To begin, it is necessary to give a little bit of prerequisite background information on the form of the electoral system in Australia. The Australian system typifies an SMDP arrangement, with 148 single-member constituencies (district magnitude of 1) spread among 6 states and 2 territories₂. The ballot format is that of a preferential list, with rounds of vote counting held based on preferential rankings until a candidate receives the necessary 50+1 majority. All of the seats in the lower house are appointed in this manner, that is, by majority rule, and therefore, the system is not a hybrid. The formula used to translate votes into legislative seats is that of a single transferable vote system, where one seat is awarded to the one candidate that emerges victorious in his/her district. There is no election threshold.

Using the N^eff formula proposed by Dr. Kirk Hawkins to table the data from the most recent Australian Parliamentary elections, one arrives at the conclusion that Australia has about 4 effective parties₃.

         Party                     # Votes                     Seats                    %Votes                  Proportion          Proportion²

Australian Labor Party	4,711,363	72	37.99	.38	.14
Liberal Party of Australia	3,777,383	44	30.46	.3	.09
Liberal National Party	1,130,525	21	9.12	.09	.0081
National Party of Australia	419,286	6	3.43	.034	.0012
Country Liberal Party	38,335	1	.31	.0031	.00001
Australian Greens	1,458,998	1	11.76	.12	.014
National Party	43,101	1	.34	.0034	.00001
Totals	11,578,991	150(omits independents)	100% (Omits independents and parties without seats)		.25332

The total of all of the proportions squared is .25332, which, when inversed, equals 3.95. However, it is very much worth noting that The Liberal Party of Australia and The National Party of Australia have been in coalition since 1944, and both the Liberal National Party and the Country Liberal party have since joined them, which in and of itself is an evidence of the veracity of Duverger’s Law. Under the law, SMDP systems supposedly filter out smaller parties and limit a country to two effective parties by either coalition or process of elimination. Although the equation for determining the effective number of parties for Australia yields a result of four, multiple parties are in coalition₄, creating the condition of a legislature essentially dominated by two parties, which stands in agreement with Duverger’s Law.

                The lack of traction of small parties in Australia is a direct result of the electoral rules of the state. Although there are 148 districts, which would seem to favor the smaller parties, their candidates don’t seem to have any sort of meaningful geographical concentration, and therefore do not garner the sufficient amount of votes (50%+1) to land a legislative post. Aside from the main parties (two for all intents and purposes), no party holds more than one seat in the House of Representatives. The single transferrable vote system, coupled with the necessity of a 50% majority creates a suffocating climate for smaller parties given the geographical distribution of districts. This sort of environment causes smaller parties to disappear or merge, as seen in the merger of the four aforementioned coalition parties.

                All of Australia’s electoral institutions and implements lend credibility to the work of Maurice Duverger. Australia typifies the SMDP structure, and as a result, has two effective parties, as our pal Maurice predicted. Were it a PR system, more seats would be awarded to smaller parties, such as the Australian Greens, who received 12% of the vote in 2010 but only landed one seat. Where Australia is concerned, Duverger’s Law holds true.

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₁ “Power and Choice: An Introduction to Political Science”. W. Phillips Shively. McGraw-Hill, New York City. 2012. P.233.

₂ “Australia: House of Representatives”. Inter-Parliamentary Union. http://www.ipu.org/parline-e/reports/2015_A.htm.  October 9,2012.

₃ Lecture on October 29,2012. Dr. Kirk Hawkins. Brigham Young University.

₄“Elections in Australia”. Wikipedia Electionworld. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elections_in_Australia.  Accessed 11/1/12.